Use the sum function.ģ) Subtract 1 from the sum of the probabilities.

Subtract Step 2 by 1 (21.76% at DraftKings)ġ) Since the conversion is slightly different for positive numbers (like +120) and negative numbers (like -120) in American odds, this equation will execute different formulas depending on what the odds are.

Add up the probabilities (121.76% at DraftKings).

Convert each set of odds to probabilities.Here's how, with an example from the 2022 Super Bowl at DraftKings in parentheses. That way you can tell if your sportsbook if giving you a fair shake. Using a simple formula in Excel or a Google Sheet, you can calculate the hold for any futures. On futures with many possible outcomes, the hold is much higher, because sportsbooks have a harder time pricing them. The holds are relatively low for something like an NFL point spread - less than 5%. Here are some examples of hold for different sets of odds featuring two teams. Whatever percentage is leftover is the hold. So what is hold? It's really just the probability of all the outcomes an event, minus 100.

That's because a sportsbook charges you a tax on every bet to take your action. That means the total probabilities of all the outcomes is 100%.īut when you're betting sports and convert odds to probabilities, those probabilities will add up to more than 100%. When you bet on a coin flip with your friend, you each have 50/50 odds. To understand hold, you need to first understand implied probability in sports betting. Books will profit more in the long run from higher hold percentages, but will turn off customers if they have unfair holds relative to their competitors. More on this in a bit.Īs a bettor, you want lower hold percentages. The theoretical hold is how much money the house would keep in a given market over an infinite amount of bets. Nevada held 3.6% of all money wagered in August 2020. The actual hold percentage refers to the percentage of money that the house keeps for every dollar wagered. You're paying even more of a premium when betting most futures than you are for a single NFL game, when the sportsbooks have a 4.55% hold.īaked into futures market is lots and lots of hold, often greater than 20%.īelow we'll explain what hold is, how to calculate hold on any futures market, and how to remove it to get true probabilities. When you look at futures odds for an event like the Super Bowl, you see all 32 teams at plus-money and some at longshot prices.īut just because you're getting greater than 6-1 on every team doesn't mean you're getting fair prices.

How to calculate odds sports betting